Cookies, Wine, and Gasoline
What do these things have in common? They have become much more expensive over the past five years, in nominal terms. Take a look at the following chart:
Looking at the price trends from 2019 to 2024, there are several notable patterns. Chocolate chip cookies show the most dramatic relative price increase. Starting around $3.50 per pound in 2019, prices remained fairly stable until 2021, when they began a noticeable upward trend. By 2023, prices had climbed to around $5.00 per pound, representing an approximate 45% increase from 2019 levels. Cookie prices have shown some slight moderation in late 2024, dropping back to around $4.90.
Wine prices have shown the most stability of the three items. Starting at about $12 per liter in 2019, they've seen a gradual increase to around $13.80 by late 2024, representing approximately a 15% increase over five years. The rise has been relatively steady, without the sharp spikes seen in other categories.
Gasoline prices show the most volatility. Below are a few events worth pointing out in the data:
- A dramatic drop in early 2020 (likely due to COVID-19 lockdowns) to under $2/gallon
- A steady recovery through 2021
- A massive spike in mid-2022 reaching over $5/gallon
- A return to more moderate levels around $3.20/gallon by late 2024
Of the three items, gasoline has shown the most price volatility, wine the least, and cookies have shown the most consistent upward trend without significant drops or volatility.
The chart below tracks the prices of several other common items:
Eggs have shown the most dramatic volatility of these particular items. They maintained relatively stable prices around $1.50/dozen until 2022, when prices began climbing dramatically, peaking at $4.82/dozen in January 2023. This represents a more than 300% increase from their 2019 prices. Prices have since moderated but remain volatile, fluctuating between $2.50-3.80/dozen in late 2024.
Ground beef shows a steady upward trend, with significant acceleration during the COVID-19 period. From around $3.80/lb in 2019, prices have increased consistently to reach about $5.60/lb by late 2024, representing roughly a 47% increase over five years. The rise has been more gradual but persistent compared to other items.
Chicken prices remained remarkably stable around $1.40-1.60/lb until early 2022, when they began climbing steadily. By late 2024, prices reached around $2.00/lb, representing about a 35% increase from 2019 levels. Note that the value for January of 2021 was unavailable (chicken wasn't free that month!).
Milk prices show a clear upward trend from about $3.00/gallon in 2019 to around $4.00/gallon in 2024, with a notable spike during 2022 when prices reached over $4.20/gallon. The increase has been more moderate recently, showing some stability around the $4.00 mark.
Bananas stand out as the most price-stable item. They've shown only minimal inflation, moving from about $0.57/lb in 2019 to around $0.62/lb in 2024, representing just a 9% increase over five years. This relative stability is particularly notable given the significant price increases in other food categories.
The data suggests that while all food items have experienced price increases since 2019, the magnitude and pattern of these increases varies significantly by product, with eggs showing extreme volatility, ground beef showing steady increases, and bananas remaining relatively stable.
About the Data
The Consumer Price Index, or CPI is a key economic indicator that measures the weighted average price change of a representative basket of consumer goods and services over time. It is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and serves as the primary gauge of inflation in the United States.