Immigration and the U.S. Labor Force
Few topics are as hotly debated as immigration. In this post, I examine data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) to explore what insights it can offer to this discussion. More information about this source is at the end of the article. The CPS collects the citizenship status of surveyed individuals, categorizing them as follows:
- Native, born in the United States
- Native, born in Puerto Rico or other U.S. island areas
- Native, born abroad to American parent(s)
- Foreign-born, U.S. citizen through naturalization
- Foreign-born, not a U.S. citizen
Using this information, we can calculate a variety of interesting statistics for foreign-born non-citizens.
Workforce Trends
Let's begin by analyzing the estimated percentage of foreign-born non-citizens in the workforce — both employed and unemployed — over the period from January 2018 to October 2024 (the latest available data as of this writing).
Keeping in mind that CPS estimates can be a bit noisy, the series was relatively stable over the 2018 period through spring 2019, at which point it became very volatile until summer of 2021. Since then, there has been a clear upward trend in the percentage of non-citizens in the labor force.
Employment by Sector
Next, let's look at which sectors of the economy employed the largest proportions of non-citizens in October 2024.
The construction sector stands out with the data showing that almost one in four workers (23%) in this industry are non-citizens. Agriculture comes in second with roughly 17% of its workers being non-citizens.
Unemployment
Finally, let's take a look at the topic of unemployment. Specifically, let's look at whether the CPS data shows any relationship between the unemployment rate for U.S. citizens in a given sector and the percentage of non-citizens in that sector.
Each dot in the chart represents one of the thirteen sectors from before. Its placement on the chart is determined by the percentage of non-citizens in the workforce as well as the unemployment rate for U.S. citizens working in that sector. It's fair to say that there is some degree of correlation between the percentage of non-citizens in a sector and the unemployment rate for U.S. citizens in that sector. Specifically, the correlation coefficient is 0.56.
About the Data
The CPS is a monthly survey conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It gathers data on various aspects of the U.S. population, particularly focusing on employment, unemployment, earnings, and other labor market indicators. The CPS is the primary source of information used to measure the U.S. labor force and unemployment, and also collects data on demographics, education, income, and numerous other items.